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UK July CPI

Wednesday, 20 August

UK inflation has climbed steadily over the past year. After cooling to 1.7% last September, consumer price growth reached 3.6% in June and is expected to have accelerated further to 4% in July. This raises questions about the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4% on 7 August. The move was narrowly approved, with the Monetary Policy Committee voting 5–4 in favour. Such a close split suggests policymakers may now pause, with markets pricing in no further changes until December or possibly February 2026.

GBP/USD D1 Chart

The BoE continues to face a difficult balancing act: lowering rates to support growth while keeping them high enough to contain inflation. Persistent price pressures and expectations of elevated rates have helped push GBP/USD higher in recent sessions. The pair is testing resistance near $1.36, while RSI momentum has broken out of a downtrend, signalling a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. A decisive break above $1.36, especially if UK CPI comes in above expectations, could open the door to a move towards $1.373.

UK & US August PMI Data

Thursday, 21 August

Recent PMI releases from both the UK and US have painted a mixed picture, but there are signs of gradual improvement in manufacturing and services activity. The focus now is whether this trend continued in August and how it reflects in flash data. With global uncertainty easing and growth stabilising, safe-haven demand for gold has weakened.

XAU/USD D1 Chart

Gold has struggled to break out of its range, repeatedly failing at resistance near $3,430 an ounce. A downward trend is now taking shape, which could be confirmed if prices drop below the prior low of $3,270. The RSI is also pointing lower, with no sign of reversal. Stronger economic data may further reduce investor appetite for gold as a hedge.

Key Economic & Company Events

Monday, 18 August

  • Germany: Monthly Bundesbank report
  • Switzerland: Q2 industrial production

Tuesday, 19 August

  • Australia: August Westpac consumer confidence
  • Canada: July CPI
  • Japan: July trade balance

Wednesday, 20 August

  • Australia: August flash PMI
  • China: PBoC interest rate decision
  • Eurozone: July CPI
  • Germany: July PPI
  • New Zealand: RBNZ interest rate decision
  • UK: July CPI & PPI
  • US: Fed meeting minutes

Thursday, 21 August

  • Australia: August inflation expectations
  • Eurozone, France, Germany, UK, US: August flash PMI data
  • Japan: July CPI
  • US: Jackson Hole symposium, weekly jobless claims

Friday, 22 August

  • Germany: Q2 GDP
  • Canada: June retail sales
  • UK: July retail sales
  • US: Jackson Hole symposium

Note: Dates and events are subject to change.

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